Wimbledon 2009 Tennis Tournament, Day 10 Wimbledon Picks

Posted by Pavan on July 2, 2009 at 6:30 am

Every day throughout Wimbledon fortnight we will be giving you our top picks. This is where the BR tennis experts at Bettorlogic reckon the betting value lies on Day 10…

Wimbledon 2009 Tennis Tournament – Semi-Final Stats

* This is the third time in the last 13 years that the top four seeds are all in the semi-finals.
* The Williams sisters have won all 10 Wimbledon semi-finals they have played, excluding matches against each other.
* They have won seven of these matches in straight sets and won the first set by three or more games six times.
* Nine of their 10 semis have been won by six or more games.

Venus Williams v Dinara Safina

Head-to-head: Williams leads 2-1; never met on grass
Last Meeting: Safina won 6/7, 6/3, 6/4 at Rome 08/05/09

Venus Williams has dropped a mere 19 games in her five matches so far and the heavy strapping around her knee didn’t look to have any adverse affect on her quarter-final. The five times champion has extended her winning streak to 19 matches at SW19, with the last 16 all been won in straight sets.

Her semi-final record here is impeccable with seven wins from seven. The last six of these victories were all achieved by at least a six game margin while the seventh was won by five games. Venus may have lost her last meeting with Safina but that was played on clay and in their previous two meetings which were both in the last 12 months and on hard courts she won by at least five games.

Since 2001 Venus has beaten the 5.5 games handicap in 37 of her 52 Wimbledon matches including 16 of 24 matches against seeded players.

Dinara Safina has only ever beaten one seed at Wimbledon and that was with the roof on against Amelie Mauresmo this year. She has lost four of her seven semi-finals in Grand Slam and Tier One tournaments excluding clay in the past three years by a margin of five or more games.

One of these defeats was a 6/2, 6/3 demolition by Serena Williams in the US Open semi last year and this was an example of how she has struggled under the extra pace the Williams sisters hit with. In total she has lost five of her eight matches against Serena by seven or more games, including all three in the last 12 months.

Safina has lost six of her last seven matches against the current top 10 players away from the clay, with five straight sets defeats and five losses by five or more games.

Recommendation: Venus Williams to win -5.5 games 2.10, Betfair

Serena Williams v Elena Dementieva

Head-to-head: All-square 5-5; Williams leads 1-0 on grass
Last Meeting: Dementieva won w/o at Paris 14/02/09

Remarkably Elena Dementieva has won five of her six meetings with Serena Williams since the start of 2006 – although her last win was a walkover. However, Serena was a convincing winner when they met in the Australian Open semi-final in January (6/3, 6/4) and has won both their career Grand Slam meetings.

Serena was at her brutal best in her quarter-final win over Victoria Azarenka and at one stage had made 19 winners to just one unforced error. Added to her current form is her outstanding record in Grand Slam semi-finals of W12-L1 with her one loss coming against Justine Henin on clay. In fact her semi-final record in Grand Slam and Tier One events away from clay since the start of 2002 is a perfect W19-L0 (W4-L3 on clay). Excluding clay she has won eight of her 11 Grand Slam semi-finals in straight sets and seven times won the first set by three or more games.

Serena has a W12-L3 record at Wimbledon against seeded players excluding her sister and has won the first set by three or more games eight times.

Elena Dementieva is yet to face a seed in this year’s Championships as she has cruised through the draw dropping no more than five games in any of her five matches. However, this lack of a competitive match could hurt her against Williams.

She has only been longer than 3.5 to win 11 times in the last three years and has lost nine times with one of her two wins coming courtesy of a retirement. Excluding the retirement she has lost the first set by three or more games in seven of the 10 matches with a further two first sets lost by two clear games.

Dementieva has coped well in a lot of her previous meeting with Serena but this may be more due to her opponents desire than anything else as she has certainly struggled against the power game when playing Venus Williams, losing the last six meetings with five first sets lost by three or more games and the other lost by two.

Dementieva’s record in Grand Slam and Tier One semi-finals is a poor one with 10 defeats in her last 12. Her Wimbledon record is not impressive either, when looking at her results against seeded players she has lost all seven times against top 20 seeds and lost the first set by four or more games in three of her four matches against top eight seeds.

Recommendation: Serena Williams to win the first set -2.0 games 2.25, William Hill

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