Green Bay Packers Vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted by Rohith on November 7, 2009 at 6:13 am

VIKINGS PACKERS Green Bay Packers (4-SU & ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS)

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* GB has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* GB has covered 14 of its last 21 road games
* GB has lost six of its last eight road games SU
* TB has covered one of its last nine games
* TB has lost its last 11 games SU
* TB has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

Also…

* TB has won and covered four of the last six meetings
* GB has won 16 of the last 24 meetings SU
* Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
* TB has covered five of the last seven meetings as the home team
* TB has won six of the last seven meetings SU as the home team
* Four of the last five meetings in Tampa have gone UNDER the total

There have been very few things as tragic as watching the demise of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. Raheem Morris, hired most likely as a result of the Rooney Rule, has come into the head coaching position with very little in the way of any real experience, fired his offensive coordinator during the pre-season, and has promptly been non-competitive. Between all three quarterbacks – Byron Leftwich, Josh Johnson and Josh Freeman – the Bucs appear to have a little “affirmative action” thing going, but the result has not been much action on the scoreboard, and not much in the NFL betting lines. Well, not enough to overcome a horrid defense.

Morris is supposed to be a defensive “mind,” and if so, we don’t know where that mind went. Tampa Bay’s transition into different pass coverage has produced 16 TD passes for the opposition, as well as 8.7 yards an attempt. They have literally given up 3.2 yards more PER ATTEMPT than their opponents. The run defense is no better (4.7 ypc allowed). They have been outgained by a hundred yards a game.

Leftwich completed 54%, then was removed for Johnson, who was intercepted eight times against 125 attempts. Now they will turn to Freeman, the first-round draft choice who the team desperately wanted to keep on the bench until he was ready. He is not ready, but he is going to play anyway, which is a factor to consider when evaluating NFL betting lines.

Freeman, in his limited action in the pre-season, as well as the last game against New England, has had that “deer in the headlights” look about him, so expect that he will make plenty of mistakes in this, his first start. The Packers have intercepted 13 passes this season; if 3-4 alignments cross up people like Peyton Manning, imagine what they are going to do to Freeman, who doesn’t even have an opportunity to get “coached up” much from the staff.

The only thing that might be able to keep this from becoming a total fiasco would be if the Bucs got a whole lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers, who’s been sacked 31 times. But Tampa Bay only has eleven sacks in seven games, and it looks like Green Bay could be in better shape this week with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher back on the offensive line.

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