NFL Week 1 Odds

The countdown to NFL Week 1 is on and the big question remains the status of quarterback Brett Favre.

The 40-year-old future Hall of Famer (and resident drama queen) received a visit from Vikings coach Brad Childress in Mississippi this week. Childress is trying to coax a commitment from his signal caller, but he left without one or a deadline.

Brobury oddsmakers don’t seem very concerned about the situation. The spread for Thursday night’s opener at the Saints has remained steady. Minnesota would be greater than a four-point ‘dog if it was thought that Tarvaris Jackson would be under center.

Having the Super Bowl champion host the Thursday night opener has quickly become an NFL tradition. So has the Monday Night doubleheader. San Diego (-6) at Kansas City is the nightcap, but fans are much more interested in Baltimore (+3) visiting the NY Jets in the Big Apple.

Coach Rex Ryan used to be the defensive coordinator for Baltimore, but was passed over as head coach for John Harbaugh. Ryan isn’t bashful about discussing all topics and you know he wants the Ravens to pay for their actions.

The Jets have a lot of question marks after bringing in star-studded acquisitions like LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, and Jason Taylor.

There are potential holdout concerns with cornerback Darrelle Revis and center Nick Mangold unhappy about their contracts. However, both should be in uniform and this will be a great game.

Other games to wager early on are Atlanta (+1 ½) at Pittsburgh and Dallas (-3 ½) at Washington. Pittsburgh has to replace Ben Roethlisberger for at least the first four games. Veteran Byron Leftwich is the favorite. Atlanta could be this year’s surprise NFC team to make the Super Bowl.

Dallas is the favorite (7/2) to win the NFC, even over New Orleans. The ‘Boys certainly have as much talent as anyone in the conference. They will head to the nation’s capital on Sunday night and try to spoil the Redskins’ debut of coach Mike Shanahan and quarterback Donovan McNabb. McNabb is of course very familiar with Dallas from his Philly days.

NFL Week 1 Odds

Minnesota (+4) at New Orleans –Thursday Night
Miami (-3) at Buffalo
Detroit (+7) at Chicago
Oakland (+7) at Tennessee
Cincinnati (+6) at New England
Carolina (+7) at NY Giants
Atlanta (+1 ½) at Pittsburgh
Cleveland (+2 ½) at Tampa Bay
Denver (+1 ½) at Jacksonville
Indianapolis (-3) at Houston
San Francisco (-2) at Seattle
Green Bay (Even) at Philadelphia
Arizona (-3 ½) at St. Louis
Dallas (-3 ½) at Washington – Sunday Night
Baltimore (+3) at NY Jets – Monday Night
San Diego (-6) at Kansas City – Monday Night

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The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers kept their playoff hopes alive for this season with a last-second victory over Green Bay last Sunday. Now they’ll try to use whatever momentum they gained from that victory to make a late-season push toward the playoffs when they host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North Division clash Sunday afternoon at the Big Ketchup Bottle.

The Ravens started 3-0 this season, then lost three straight by a total of 11 points to the Patriots, Bengals and Vikings, all of whom seem headed to the playoffs. Baltimore then alternated wins and losses for six weeks, but has won two in a row after pounding Chicago last week 31-7.

So the Black Birds, at 8-6, sit a game back of first-place Cincy in the AFC North, although the Bengals hold the tie-breaker over Baltimore, having swept the season series. More importantly, the Ravens also own the five seed in the AFC playoff standings, a game ahead of six teams, including Pittsburgh, who all sit at 7-7.

The Steelers began their defense of their league championship by losing two of their first three games, then won five straight to get to 6-2. Pittsburgh then proceeded to lose five in a row, two in overtime and all by a touchdown or less. But last week the Steelers got a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass on the last play of the game to beat Green Bay 37-36 and get back to .500 on the season.

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So Pittsburgh is wedged in a six-way tie with the Dolphins, Jets, Jaguars, Titans and Texans, all one game behind Baltimore and Denver in the AFC wild-card race.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, in his sophomore season as a pro, has completed 64% of his passes for 7.4 YPA, with 19 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and an 89.9 passing rating.

His counterpart Sunday, Big Ben, has had a lot put on his shoulders this season, and has done well under that pressure. So far this season Ben has hit on 67% of his throws for 8.6 YPA, which ranks behind only San Diego’s Rivers and New Orleans’ Brees, with a 22/11 TD/INT ratio and a 100.6 rating.

On the season Baltimore is outgaining opponents on average by a 355-300 YPG margin, and outrushing foes 128-100.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are outgaining opponents 375-304 and outrushing them 110-83.

Last year Pittsburgh beat the Ravens three times, twice in the regular season by scores of 23-20 and 13-9, and in the AFC championship game 23-14. But in the first meeting between these two division rivals this season a month ago in Baltimore, the Ravens beat the Roethlisberger-less Steelers 20-17 in overtime.

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With their chances of defending that title fading with each defeat, the Steelers hit the road Thursday night looking to halt their midseason swoon with a 13th consecutive victory over the feeble Cleveland Browns.

Pittsburgh (6-6) started the season 1-2, but then ran off five consecutive wins to put itself in position to challenge emerging Cincinnati in the AFC North.

An 18-12 Bengals victory at Heinz Field on Nov. 15, however, gave Cincinnati a one-game lead and a season sweep of the Steelers. Three subsequent losses by three points apiece have now left Pittsburgh’s wild-card hopes in doubt.

The Steelers’ once-vaunted defense has blown fourth-quarter leads in all three, with its worst collapse Sunday against Oakland. Pittsburgh coughed up three separate leads in the final 8:21, allowing the Raiders’ 31st-ranked offense to score 21 points and leave Heinz Field with a 27-24 win.

“I can’t even describe how frustrating it is right now to be 6-6,” linebacker James Farrior said. “We thought we’d be doing a lot better at this point. But we are what our record says we are.”

That record currently has the Steelers on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but ground can certainly be made up in the muddled AFC wild-card picture the final four weeks. Denver (8-4) and Jacksonville (7-5) are the two current leaders, with Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami and the New York Jets all 6-6.

The Steelers own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos and face the Ravens and Dolphins to close the season.

Tomlin, however, is far more concerned with the franchise avoiding its first five-game slide since Sept. 28-Nov. 2, 2003. A week after saying his team “doesn’t blink in the face of adversity” and would “unleash hell in December,” Tomlin admitted Monday that personnel moves are on the way.

“We can’t stay status quo in terms of how we’re approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change,” Tomlin said. “That’s unrealistic. That’s hoping. This is not a hope business.”

One of those likely moves certainly won’t be by choice. Receiver Hines Ward, who has six touchdowns in his last eight games against Cleveland, likely won’t play after suffering a hamstring injury late in the loss to Oakland. Rookie Mike Wallace, who has five catches during the losing streak after having 25 in his first seven games, will get the start if Ward can’t go.

The other noticeable changes will come in the secondary. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu (knee) will likely miss his fourth straight game — he left early in the November loss to Cincinnati — and struggling cornerback William Gay might not play after suffering a concussion against the Raiders.

Meanwhile, Tomlin suggested veteran corner Ike Taylor, who was beaten for a 75-yard touchdown Sunday, could be benched, with rookies Joe Burnett and Keenan Lewis seeing more playing time in the secondary. Polamalu, who’s played in three full games, has three interceptions, but no Pittsburgh cornerback has a pick.

“I’m not going to make excuses,” Tomlin said. “I think we’re capable of playing winning football with or without Troy. Are we different? Yes, because Troy’s a unique individual. Maybe the ceiling is different but the floor, the level of expectation, is the same.”

Ben Roethlisberger, who missed the team’s Nov. 29 loss at Baltimore with a concussion, had a quarterback rating over 100.0 for his second straight game despite Sunday’s loss, and the Ohio native was outstanding against the Browns (1-11) earlier this season. Roethlisberger was 23 of 35 for 417 yards and two touchdowns on Oct. 18 in Pittsburgh’s 27-14 win, its 12th straight against Cleveland.

San Diego’s 13-game winning streak over Oakland is the active record for most consecutive wins over one opponent.

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There is no doubt this is true for the Ravens—mark my words: there will not be a 9-7 team to make it in either conference. Losing this would mean the team must win every game the rest of the way, and they still have to play at Pittsburgh, a team they needed overtime to beat at home despite Ben Roethlisberger not playing.

The Packers could lose this one and still have a one-game margin of error. However, with a loss the green and gold would fall out of the playoff picture as of now, and have two tough road games to follow: a division game against a desperate Bears team and then one against the desperate Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

What’s more, they finish the season against the Arizona Cardinals, who may be playing for the second seed based on tonight’s thrashing of the Vikings.

Let me put it bluntly: I believe there are two losses in those three games. (We should beat the Seahawks at Lambeau since they only beat the Niners because of three or four bad calls.

Packers Passing Attack vs. Ravens Pass Defense: Advantage, Packers

The Packers are the sixth-ranked passing attack in the league, averaging 262.8 yards per contest, and rank eighth in yards per play. The Ravens are the 12th-ranked pass defense, yielding 211.3, and rank 19th in yards per play.

Green Bay’s stats are inflated by some weak pass defenses—two games against the Lions and one against Cleveland—but the Packers have spent much of five games running out the clock with the game well in hand in the fourth quarter. The Ravens have played three bad passing attacks—the Chiefs and the Browns twice—and have had to face more passing in just three games that were won by two scores.

Packers Rushing Attack vs. Ravens Rush Defense: Big Advantage, Ravens

The Packers average 119.2 yards per game, good enough to rank 13th in both total yards and yards per play. The Ravens give up 97.6 yards per game, good enough for sixth in the league; however, no team gives up fewer yards per play.

While Green Bay has played some tough run defenses (Minnesota twice, San Francisco, and Dallas), the Ravens have played the Bengals, a top rushing offense, twice. Green Bay’s numbers are inflated by needing to grind out five games, while the Ravens have never been blown out where they might face teams doing the same.

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In Week 13, the Broncos play Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium and should win this one to run their record to 8-4.

The Jets have Buffalo and should win this one, even though it’s on the road. New York still has little chance to make the playoffs unless Mark Sanchez suddenly matures one season early, and takes them on a run starting this week.

Bet On NFL Week 13

The Jets will beat Buffalo, but after that, no one knows.

Philadelphia travels to Atlanta and needs a win, but so do the Falcons. Matt Ryan and his offense should outscore Philadelphia for a close home victory.

Indianapolis, on autopilot to the playoffs, has Tennessee in the friendly confines at home in Indiana. We have to take the best team in the AFC to this point, and give the Colts the nod on this one.

Houston takes on Jacksonville in Florida and should nail this road win becoming one step closer to the first playoff game in franchise history. Houston must keep winning now, and hope the chips fall right for the Texans.

Bet On NFL Week 13

Cincinnati will handle Detroit at home and remain a good solid 9-3 for the season. The Steelers sitting Ben Roethlisberger last week, basically said, here’s the division Bengals, take it.

Tampa Bay will have their only real shot at another win this season, against the Carolina Panthers on the road. I would almost take the Bucs in this one, but I think not.

Carolina wins this one at home.

Bet On NFL Week 13

The Steelers will have Roelthlisberger back hopefully, and handle the Raiders, to keep their playoff hopes alive.

New England is in Miami, and should handle the reduced wildcat without Ronnie Brown.

The Patriots are trying to get a high seed for the playoffs at this point, and will play hard up until at least Week 15, then maybe rest some key players.

The Bears may finally win one as they host the Rams. I will take the Bears to get it done.

New Orleans, on cruise control to the NFC Championship Game, will beat Washington on the road easily.

San Diego will take Cleveland on the road easily as well to keep the division lead.

The 49ers have Seattle on a trip north, and should handle the Seahawks to keep very faint playoff hopes alive. These hopes are very faint, like barely a pulse.

Dallas has a big test with the Giants in the Meadowlands. I would take Dallas in this one, except it’s time for the big fold-o by the Cowboys going down the stretch.

I will take the Giants at home, who have something to prove still, while Dallas will be complacent it seems in this one.

Bet On NFL Week 13

The Vikings travel to the desert and take on Arizona. This season, the Vikings added some Favre guy for the trip west. Advantage, Vikings.

On Monday, the Ravens travel to Green Bay and take on the surging Packers. This should be a pretty good one. Green Bay, at home as of late, seems like a good pick.

The Ravens are fighting for the playoffs and so are the Packers. This is like a mini-playoff game to make the playoffs. Take the Packers in this one. Bet On NFL Week 13

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The Pittsburgh Steelers saw their high-flying offense hit a big stumbling block in their latest game, but have reason to believe it will bounce back at Arrowhead Stadium.

Pittsburgh tries to get its offense recharged Sunday by taking advantage of the lowly Kansas City Chiefs, who look to win consecutive games for the first time in more than two years.

The Steelers (6-3) had the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense (403.7 yards per game) through six weeks, with Ben Roethlisberger’s passing attack averaging 315.5 yards — second behind Indianapolis. The next two weeks saw Pittsburgh’s rushing game take over, averaging 140.0 yards behind the emerging Rashard Mendenhall in wins over Minnesota and Denver.

But neither the ground attack nor Roethlisberger could get untracked last Sunday, when the Steelers failed to score a touchdown in an 18-12 home loss to Cincinnati. They were limited to a season-low 226 total yards and held under 27 points for the first time since Week 3, giving the Bengals a one-game lead in the NFC North and a season sweep of the Super Bowl champions.

“There was just something missing all day, I don’t know what it was,” said Roethlisberger, who was 20 of 40 for 174 yards and an interception. “We weren’t good in the red zone, we weren’t good in the run, we weren’t good in the pass. … It hurts. But how can we rebound now?”

Visiting Kansas City (2-7) could be a good way to do it. The Chiefs have allowed averages of 443.3 yards and 30.0 points in losing their last three at Arrowhead, and they are 0-4 at home for the first time since opening 0-6 in 1976.

They’ve given up an average of 152.3 rushing yards in the last six games overall, and that bodes well for Mendenhall after he was held to 36 yards on 13 carries last week.

However, perhaps the Steelers’ two biggest problems against Cincinnati had nothing to do with their lackluster offense.

Troy Polamalu left with an injury to his left knee in his fourth game back after previously missing four games with an MCL sprain in that knee. While this injury wasn’t initially considered as serious, the All-Pro safety has been limping this week and is all but certain to be out Sunday.

The Steelers also need to shore up their special teams, which allowed a kick return for a touchdown for the third time in four games. It was the seventh straight they allowed a TD via defense or special teams.

Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed a league-low 11 touchdowns, but a season after having the league’s best kickoff coverage unit (19.1 yards per return), it’s 29th (25.9 ypr) in 2009.

“They’re all head-scratchers. … It’s detail, it’s about shedding blocks and making tackles and being schematically sound,” coach Mike Tomlin said. “We’re in the process of looking at all elements of that unit.”

No team has allowed four kickoff returns for TDs in a season since the 1998 Vikings. The Chiefs haven’t had one since Dante Hall did it in 2005.

Kansas City was happy to get any sort of touchdown in Oakland last Sunday. Jamaal Charles had a 44-yard TD — the Chiefs’ first on the ground this season — in a 16-10 victory, less than a week after Larry Johnson was released.

“We talked about that before the game, that one of the running backs had to go and make something happen,” said Charles, who rushed for 103 yards. “It turned out to be me, and I’m blessed to be in that position.”

Kansas City hasn’t won back-to-back games since Oct. 14-21, 2007.

The positive feelings from the win in Oakland were dimmed Tuesday, when leading receiver Dwayne Bowe was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy against performance-enhancing substances. Bowe, who had 466 yards and four touchdowns, took a diuretic for weight loss, according to his agent.

“It’s no different than injuries,” coach Todd Haley said. “When somebody goes down, somebody has to step up and that’s all part of the process of us becoming a good team.”

Haley has ties to Pittsburgh — he was a ball boy for the Steelers when his father, Dick, was their director of player personnel and the architect of four Super Bowl winners in the 1970s.

He also was Arizona’s offensive coordinator last season, when the Cardinals scored 16 fourth-quarter points before Pittsburgh rallied to win its sixth championship, 27-23.

“I know the Super Bowl was a surreal experience, having to play of all the teams, the Steelers,” Haley said. “Now we get to play them again and I’m just looking forward to the challenge.”

The Chiefs and Steelers haven’t met in Kansas City since 2003. Roethlisberger was 16 of 19 for 238 yards and two TDs in a 45-7 win in Pittsburgh in 2006.

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