Race-day: 11/15/2009
Race-time: 2:30 pm EST

With two races to go in The Chase, Jimmie Johnson has a 73 point over fellow Hendrick Motor Sports driver Mark Martin, and a 112 point lead over fellow Hendrick driver Jeff Gordon.

The chances of Jimmie losing the Sprint Cup aren’t very good, but stranger things have happened which is why the Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, this Sunday’s race at Phoenix International Raceway, is such a big deal. JJ finished 38th last week in Texas and another finish like that, along with let’s say a Mark Martin victory, would make next week’s final race in The Chase very, very interesting.

Could Johnson possibly blow the Sprint Cup lead he garnered by winning the three of the four Chase races? Sure he could if he keeps finishing close to 40th place and his teammate, Martin, wins a couple more.

Martin, by the way, returns to Phoenix where he won in April and where he averages a 9th place finish. The old man of Hendrick hasn’t been driving like an old timer all season and definitely has enough left in the tank to make a serious run at JJ should Jimmie and his crew blow another race.

The NASCAR odds on Johnson in the race are +400. The odds on Mark Martin in the sportsbook are +500. I’d go with Martin in this situation. He’s coming off of a 4th place finish at Texas and has won at PIR before.

This race is Martin’s to lose, not Jimmie’s to win, which means that a seriously interesting matchup next week at Homestead cold be brewing after Sunday.

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